2012 Presidential Election: the polls to watch

I am an obsessive follower of politics. With 189 days left until the US presidential election, I'm in full-on obsessive poll-watching mode. As usual, you should ignore national polls. The important point is the electoral college. You can see a projected electoral map for 2012, and you can also create your own. My current pessimistic prediction has Barack Obama winning by just 3 electoral votes, hinging on a win in Virginia. Virginia is one of the four battleground states that are going to matter in this election. The full set, and their current polls, are: Virginia - best bet Ohio - a possible win North Carolina - an unlikely win Florida - no chance Obama won all four in 2008 but this is pretty much guaranteed not to happen this year. While national polls are almost useless, it is worth keeping an eye on these three: Obama's job approval: is he doing a good job? This has been negative for most of Obama's presidency, which is not great but not unusual either. Obama's favorability: do you like him?...


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