Egg on your Facebook

posted 01 February 2008, updated 01 February 2008

Hey, remember that $15bn Facebook valuation on the back of $150m in revenue but $0 in profit? It turns out that Zuckerberg's baby plans to make a net loss of $150m in 2008. Even if you take away all the spending they intend to make on servers and equipment -- which you can't do; those servers will need to be constantly replaced -- they will make only $50m, making their valuation a whopping 300x profit.

And this is all assuming that their projected revenue of $300m, twice that of 2007, comes true in 2008. Good luck doing that as an ad-supported service in the middle of recession, guys.

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Like a punch in the stomach

posted 01 February 2008

Imagine, for a moment, that you woke up this morning to discover that the country you lived in was being invaded by China, and it looked pretty much like China was gonna win.

You know that the people living in China are good people, happy people. You know that many good things come out of China. But you didn't want to live under the Chinese government. Their system is just fundamentally wrong, contrary to what you believe in, and the government has been responsible for horrific atrocities in the past that you never want to be associated with.

That is what it feels like to be a web developer, working for Yahoo!, and waking up to discover that it looks very likely you are about to be purchased by Microsoft. Microsoft may be a good company, a strong company, maybe even fun to work for. But they don't get the web. Their whole corporate DNA is contrary to the culture of openness and interconnectedness that makes up the Internet and that Yahoo!, despite its many flaws, understands. A Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo! would be the death of Yahoo! as a company and a culture.

I deeply, fervently, sincerely hope that this deal doesn't go through, but it looks like it will, and that's heartbreaking.

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