Junior programmers are getting destroyed by AI — down 19%, while devs over 40 thrive. Meanwhile, millions of non-developers are shipping real software without the job title. The credential market collapsed; the activity exploded. The problem: nobody's building the next generation of senior engineers.

DevRel isn't community management or a conference circuit — it's docs, engineering, content, and product feedback, in that order. Measure it with pipeline, shipped features, and attention, plus the one thing that actually matters and can't be quantified: do developers actually like you?

AI-native startups are doing more with less — 40% smaller teams, 6x higher revenue per employee — and the data confirms it's not just hype. But the wave of new jobs I predicted hasn't materialized so far. Compute is replacing labor. Will that change?

My bet for 2026: companies chasing margins and hitting diminishing returns on frontier models will shift to fine-tuning small, domain-specific models. Fine-tuning is getting cheaper, open-weights models are catching up to frontier ones, and differentiation through your own data beats competing on prompt engineering alone.

AI won't kill programming jobs or leave them untouched. It's a new abstraction layer, like every one before it, that will create vastly more developers building vastly more software. Existing programmers keep their jobs; a long tail of cheaper new roles unlocks demand we couldn't previously afford to meet.

I scaled back my ambitions from "how to write AI apps" to what I've actually learned. Key lessons: LLMs excel at condensing text, not creating it. Give them the data they need rather than relying on training. Let them self-correct. Use regular code wherever possible. And stop trying to replace humans, especially doctors and lawyers.

After leaving Netlify, I've been exploring AI/ML/LLM opportunities. Here's my explainer: "AI" is marketing, ML learns from examples, and LLMs are essentially massive word-completion engines. But at scale, something remarkable emerges that looks like understanding, and that changes everything about what software can do.

I've been saying for years that there are no fundamentals of web development, and people keep pushing back. My argument is simple: "fundamental" means *necessary*, and no single skill, not HTML, not CSS, not JavaScript, is necessary to get a web page into the world. Gatekeeping helps no one.

I push back on Alex Russell's "Market for Lemons" post blaming JS frameworks and their advocates for poor mobile web performance. Developers aren't stupid or deceived: React dominates because of rational economics. Frameworks save developer time, enable hiring, and compound via ecosystems. Better frameworks, not fewer frameworks, is the answer.